Science Common Sense
1845 - What are the uncertainties in projections of climate change and its future impacts?
Imagine you're trying to predict the weather a week from now. You can look at maps and forecasts, but there's always a chance that something unexpected happens. It's like that with climate change too.
There are a few things that make it hard to know exactly what will happen because of climate change:
How much greenhouse gases we'll release: We don't know exactly how much pollution people will produce in the future. If we cut back on pollution, climate change might not be as bad. But if we keep polluting, it could get worse.
How the Earth's systems will respond: The Earth's climate system is very complicated. We're not entirely sure how things like oceans, ice sheets, and forests will react to more greenhouse gases.
How people will adapt: We don't know how well people will be able to prepare for and deal with the effects of climate change. If we're good at adapting, we can reduce the damage. But if we're not prepared, the impacts could be worse.
How climate models work: Climate models are like super-powerful computers that try to predict the future. But like any computer program, they have their limits and can be wrong.
All these uncertainties mean that we can't know exactly what will happen in the future. But we do know that climate change is a big problem, and we need to try to reduce our pollution and prepare for its impacts.