Science Common Sense

1844 - What are the estimated effects with and without anthropogenic factors in various climate change models?

Imagine you're on a bus and it's getting hotter outside. There are two scenarios.

Without human impact (natural factors only): The bus is moving because it's driven by the Earth's natural systems like volcanic eruptions, changes in the Earth's orbit, and the Sun's energy. The bus would still feel some ups and downs in temperature due to these factors, but overall it would be stable.

With human impact (anthropogenic factors): Now imagine that you and your friends are in the bus and you're using a lot of electric heaters, burning gas, and creating a lot of heat. This is like what humans do with pollution and greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide. The bus would get even hotter and hotter, much faster.

Climate change models are like predicting the bus temperature in both scenarios. They take into account natural factors and human activities like pollution and greenhouse gases.

Some of the estimated effects in climate models with and without anthropogenic factors include: - Temperature: Without human impact, the temperature would stay stable or change very slowly. With human impact, the temperature is predicted to rise by 2-5°C (3.6-9°F) by the end of the century, depending on the model. - Sea-level rise: Without human impact, sea levels would change very slowly. With human impact, sea levels are predicted to rise by up to 1 meter (3.3 feet) by the end of the century, due to melting ice and expanding ocean water. - Extreme weather: Without human impact, extreme weather events like hurricanes, droughts, and floods would happen at a normal rate. With human impact, these events are predicted to occur more often and be more severe.

These predictions vary depending on the climate model and the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere.